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I have one small disagreement to the arguments...
firstly Wii after a price cut is barely matching last years number.. it was 25k last yr's week of Oct 18th  n it is 27k this week..
but PS3 is 4x after the price cut.. from around avg of 6 - 8k to 27k...

and your original prediction was that PS3 will be handsomely beaten by Wii in all of October n November.. which i think was not much unreasonable thinking the $100 difference plus Wii phenomenon

but So far till the middle of the october both r equal... so i think u cant just discard PS3 especially after the Price cut n redesign...

So even if Wii wins the race (which it should do logically but sometime holiday shopping dont follow logic), it will be by 100k difference not something like 500k difference