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For me the facts that old Halo 3 is still selling very good after two years and huge number of people still play this game (and so on) are the indicators that Reach will be a sales monster bigger than Halo 3 because there clearly is a need for a Halo franchise and it will grow alongside inrease of the userbase and if M$ takes some serious advertasing Reach can make it to 15m in two years. In 3 years from now there will probably be more 10m sellers on X360 so why not to think that the biggest franchise could brake another barier I don't say it will definitely do it, but it's probable.