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I think it'll need:
1) A spartan at the forefront of the story (main character)
2) Severely heavy marketing to remind people that it is the next big halo FPS shooter installment, and not a half-step, side-story or different genre game.
3) Some amazing multiplayer with no problems from day 1

If it has all that, it might sell as much as Halo 3. I'd think 15 million is highly unlikely.