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Believe it or not it could be close, in the first 3 weeks so far its sales arc looks similar to Gears Of War 2, but at about + 300,000 units overall each week. Halo 3 has 13 sales weeks to get there, after 13 weeks Gears 2 was just over 4.5 million units. Halo 3 has an advantage of having its initial big push + the holiday season to follow, where Gears 2 was released right as the holiday season was gearing up in November. But Halo 3 also has a big disadvantage and that is Modern Warfare 2. MW2 is going to be so huge that I expect all other games to disappear for at least 2 - 3 weeks.