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It's one of those games that you just don't know how it will do. Review wise people are saying it is one of if not the best driving game available. Question is with the amount of titles coming out in such a short space of time would people rather a racing game or something else i.e MW2 etc..
The 2nd game sold 4m lifetime so i expect sales to be around the same. Gran Turismo was bundled many times and i expect GT5 to be the same.
But Forza 3 won't reach GT5 numbers simply because it will only sell in 2 regions.
With this game sales don't matter, it won't make it better. It will have hardcore racing fans buying it who love these games, those people will buy GT5 too.