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Im not going to comment on what other have wrote here but for me what I see MS doing next christmas is 1 of 2 things
1) They will get rid of the arcade(I still think its main goal was to be the cheapest next gen model out there and the first to reach 199) and have the elite priced at 199 while the natal model at 299 making the standalone natal unit 125(extra games).
Or
2) They will drop the arcade down to 150 keep the elite at 299 bundled with Natal and have the natal unit at 150 standalone.
Very outside chance that prices wont change and all models are bundled with Natal stand alone unit selling at 125(packed with more games than what comes with the consoles).
I REALLY dont see ms coming out with a console that is going to be more expensive than the ps3( ms 399 elite matches that of sonys 399 slim).