If Natal is packaged with the 360, launch price is likely in the range of 400 - 500.
The recent $50 Elite rebates was a market test for MS. If consumer response was good, we can expect to see the drop make permanent soon. Some analysts expected such drop as early as Feb, Mar 2010. After that the $250 price will likey stay the same until 2011.
How much will Natal retail for when it launches is a big guess for everyone. We should not expect it to be packaged with the system for $299 however as this suggests Natal can be sold separately for $50, the price of a controller! This is too much wishful thinking.
Rather expect it to lauch separately for $150 - 250, putting the complete Natal Elite 360 package at $400 - $500. R&D cost for Natal is probably much more than most of us give it credit for. There are some cutting edge sci-fi like tech stuffed in there. Things like voice recognition, facial recognition, body gesture tracking and the associated AI, etc. are very difficult problems that MS and many others have been working on for more than a decade. So expect some of that R&D cost to be factored into Natal.
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