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As long as the wii continues to outsell the other consoles, it has little to worry about this holiday season even if third party sales don't come close to 360. There isn't enough good titles out for the wii according to reviews that matter. The 360 sells more, but it has more A and AAA titles. 22 on the wii, and 128 on the 360 according to metacritic.

It's the PS3 that has to worry this Christmas. The PS3 has 49 good titles according to metacritic, so it should be selling over double the amount of software as the wii.

In summary... You have to first get support in order to loose it. The PS3 has had support and so it could loose it. The wii must first get it before it can loose it.