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By Fall 2010, won't the arcade be like 150$.
If Sony's wand comes out 6 months before Natal and at a fraction of the asking price (50-70 for both the ps eye and a wand) couldn't MS's response be to just bundle Natal with the arcade for 299.99 and initially sell it at a $50 loss. Which they'd quickly make back when misinformed consumers are left with no choice but to buy a $100-200 HDD so they can have access to more XBLA games and Natal games.