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I think they will have two ways to get Natal...

A bundle with the console for the $399 price point they just vacated...

A bundle of Natal and a game or suite of games that really showcase the hardware....

You have to remember that Microsoft is heavily selling 3rd parties to develop for Natal. They have to give 3rd parties a value proposition to support the hardware. Obviously, from the comments that many big names have made, they feel the value proposition is there, and it will sell.