Crunch time for the PS3

[Dodece]

I would have said that this entire month is critical. Unfortunately for Sony their price cutting is not generating a significant improvement of sales. The other regions only showed a 200,000 unit bonus in sales. While in North America it will be lucky to give a bonus of 100,000, and to be honest I did not see a bonus in Japan. I think the price cuts in total for all regions throughout the rest of the year will only generating half a million in additional sales that would not have been seen otherwise. Some might say any good news is good news. However Sony had to have expected a much greater improvement, as did I think many developers.

However unit sales are only part of the problem. The other part of the problem is the software attach rate. The reality no matter how unfair is that when a console has a lower user base that base must compensate with greater spending to maintain developer interest. Further more it is imperative that they do so to justify development for the console. We have to remember a exclusive game for the PS3 costs considerably more then the other two consoles. Great games simply must see sales over half a million to be profitable for developers.

Others have said it, but it needs to be emphasized. Games like Tools of Destruction need to perform far better then they have. When they sell poorly it scares developers away from the console. They say look at that high caliber game flopping over there. Look at the total attach rate for the console. Sony might not be selling the most consoles, but if they had Microsoft's software attach rate they would have some cushion to get on their feet. Ironically the existence of the 360 might actually save the dedicated gamers on the PS3 from total despair. Even if the console fails or flops there are enough units in the market that the console can get a decent supply of ports.

Sony needs to improve sales on two fronts, and the price cutting is not cutting it pun intended. I would dare to say that the console is in real jeopardy in the North American market, and it is not healthy in Japan. Further more there is no dominance in the other markets. They do not even have a decent user base to fall back on to guarantee a certain level of support. They have yet to entrench their console in the market. Until a console is entrenched its in real danger of being abandoned. With the lower attach rate that point is substantially higher.

I would say this Sony needs to sell at minimum globally one million units this month. They also need to sell globally over three million units this year. The closer the console is to ten million units the better. However if the console ends the year under eight million units sold globally. You can start lighting candles. Sure Sony can drag the corpse around, but it will not become some kind of success. Too much will be lost by a poor showing this month.

Right now the console has nothing going for it thats going to bring it up to adequate sales. Even the games are not selling like they need to, and finally the other two consoles are selling markedly better, and have been gaining real momentum. The race is not a vacuum what these competitors are doing is hurting the PS3, and the more ground they make the more appealing these platforms will become to consumers, and developers alike.

Yes it is fair to say this is crunch time for the PS3. This month will make, break, or kill the console. I have said it before the PS3 needs to survive the damage that will be done by this holiday season. Now if it cannot then next year will not matter. They need to entrench their console, and that is all that matters during the next few weeks.