Funny I haven't heard people confidently saying that PS3 motion controls will make it equivalent to a Wii HD, but OK.
And none of those listed games will likely sell 15 mil, no. On the other hand when PS3 motion controls hit, PS3 will already have a LARGE userbase and it is just now starting to pick up its strongest momentum yet. The question is, will motion controls contribute to the PS3 being able to remain viable longer than the other consoles.
If graphics REALLY don't matter, Wii can be viable forever. If they matter just a bit, Wii may be due for an upgrade while PS3 will have horsepower and features (blu-ray, games, cam/networking, etc) sufficient to power it for a long, long time.
I still think Sony needs to improve its social/casual offerings, though LBP, Singstar and other efforts strike me as pretty rad. They just never took off in popular awareness like Wii. Partly because of the PS3's price. PS2 managed to do ok, if we'll recall. ;)
