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I'm not quite sure if your reasoning justifies what you want. These companies would learn regardless of who finishes first. To be fair, the 360 has been ahead of PS3 since it was even first announced. Even if , lets say a year from now the numbers look something like

360 : 40 million
PS3 : 40.6 million

I really don't think that Microsoft is going to look at their online service, which currently grants them over 500m + in revenue a month, and say "Gee, this really isn't working for me, I need to change it up". Personally, as a gold member of the service, I don't mind paying for what I view is a premium product.

As for the On Demand products; yes I agree with you. However consider that the service has been online for two months now. There is a lot of room for change.

Plus lets not forget the 800 pound gorilla in the room. The Wii blasted both of them away in sales. I think that teaches both companies more of a lesson than whomever winds up with the silver medal.