Wii 10 mln. or PS3 5 mln. in Japan. Who first?

[Avinash_Tyagi]

Netyaroze said:
@Avinash_Tyagy

I think that noone can predict the future its just impossible and what we see are more or less guesses which are based on more or less exact information. I have just a feeling that Wii wont do as good as previous years in Japan the year showed us that Wii can be in the 10k Range which noone could imagine before.

ioi made a good prediction but he is not god and he can be wrong. The truth is guessing numbers is especially in Japan gambling. If someone is right than its just because if all give their guesses and its between the range of 1000 and 1 Million someone has to be right. If you read the old threads 1-2 years old than you see that almost everyone is false. Predicting the future is hard even if its a near future. And why I believe that he will be wrong he said first its a rough estimate and it was a good one but even he is not able to look inside the heads of the Japanese people so all he can do is a guess so do I and I believe that the Wii will be weaker.

The Wii Numbers will be lower than last year especially in Japan the Hype is not as huge anymore. And Final Fantasy is really the game all have waited for in Japan.

  Your predictions are even more unlikely, you can argue that ioi may be wrong, but his are backed up by reasoned points and good data, yours are just pulled out of nowhere.

First off FF13 isn't going to be all that huge in japan, Famitsu is predicting 1.5 million Lifetime, so lets say they lowball it, a little, and it sells 1.7 million lifetime, that still means less than 1.5 million in 2009, now as we know with these types of games, they are heavily frontloaded, so you get maybe one week of boost, then back down, so it won't give the PS3 a sustained boost, and PS3's other games lineup is pretty medicore, so no big software boost, in addition PS3 has only passed 100K once in Japan, so the idea that FF13 will boost PS3 past 200K is wishful thinking.

On the other hand, we know NSMB is a huge seller, the DS version has sold around 5 million in Japan, and is still selling, its huge, and we know that unlike JRPGs on the PS3, there aren't many platformers on the Wii and no 2D platformers, and no 2D mario Platformers, so its going to be able to bring in a huge number of gamers who don't own a Wii.

Wii wasn't selling on hype, it was selling on games, and for the first half ot the year it didn't have games, now the games are coming, and you'll see a big boost to Wii sales with NSMB and the other Wii titles.