Really depends.
If the deal is much better on the 40gb than on anything else you can get, go for it IMO. You can upgrade the hdd later on if you find yourself running out of space, and hdds are only getting cheaper.
After a year I'm still at below 40gb (of my 80) but 1. I buy few PSN games and 2. I mostly stick to one game until I'm done with it and then don't go back to it until much later (if it was good), so removing an install isn't really bothersome since I wouldn't need it for months (and 3. I don't put video files on it, prefer direct HDMI connection or PS3 media server from PC).
Great choice on VC, from the rest I only have BlazBlue and it's great online (and even offline).







