ioi said:
I think you're confusing yourself to be honest! 1) Because Wii sales "unconstrained" would have been much higher last year so even if sales were flat this year it would represent an effective decrease in demand - so sales could be up 10% even if demand is down. This is on a worldwide basis I am talking about - Wii sales were not supply constrained last year in Japan. 2) I didn't say that NSMB Wii will encourage 2m new people to buy Wiis - I said it would bring in 2m more people than those who bought Galaxy. I believe it will bring in a lot of fresh Wii owners but not 2m. I can see it having more of a hardware effect than FFXIII will on PS3. I'm not sure how anyone can underestimate the 2D Mario effect when New SMB on DS has sold nearly 6 million units in Japan alone. |
1) You wrote:
"Of course Wii will have a much stronger year this year than last in Japan. [my italics]
1. Wii's weren't particularly hard to find last year in Japan, unlike the US and Europe - they were selling based purely on demand rather than artifically lower due to shortages."
And this in a thread about hardware milestones specific to Japan. It made no sense to me because you seemed to be implying that unconstrained sales last year (in Japan) would translate to higher sales this year (in Japan). If you look back on what you wrote, doesn't point 1 suggest that last year's (declined) sales in Japan are representative of demand -- and that demand showed a decline? I don't dispute that Wii will have a better holiday worldwide 2009 vs 2008, but that's not what this thread is about and it's not what you said.
2) You said "New SMB Wii certainly won't be selling just to Galaxy buyers in Japan - it could bring in a potential ~2m new buyers." Again, in a thread about hardware milestones, I hope you can see the ambiguity. At the very least you should explain how you think this will translate to hardware sales.
I said I seemed to be underestimating the effect of SMB because I respect your prediction abilities and I thought you were talking about its effect on hardware sales in this thread about hardwale sales. You weren't. As it turns out I may not be underestimating SMB after all because I expect it to have massive software sales but mostly to Nintendo fans who I think (especially in Japan) bought their Wii's a long time ago.
I don't mean to sound like a jerk, but I think you started writing and just kind of lost track of the point you were trying to make and digressed into talking about worldwide sales and software sales. Your points make a lot more sense in that context.
