You care about codecs and music conversion. 90% of people probably never convert or need to convert music formats. All they care about is finding a few songs that they can find easily and play. File formats are not a factor in their purchases. They will buy an iPod because it's easy to understand and they have confidence they will be able to use it. That same confidence does not exist with other players, which is why Apple can charge a premium.
The difference between Sony's phones and the iPhone is that Apple has a FAT contract with AT&T where they get an insane amount of the pie, whereas Sony probably gets a few crumbs. When you have the hot phone, you can negotiate these type of sweetheart deals. AT&T knows they are screwed if they lose iPhone exclusivity, so they pay through the nose. Sony has to take whatever the phone companies are willing to give, which isn't much. They would lose Sony phones in a heartbeat if they could get a cheaper contract with another company.
Anyone can guess. It takes no effort to throw out lots of predictions and have some of them be correct. You are not and wiser or better for having your guesses be right. Even a blind man can hit the bullseye.
