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Stefan.De.Machtige said:
Would confidence translate as 'Sony gave us a big bag of money'?

I find it hard to believe there would another reason then that. Why would they launch a brand new franchise on the smallest installbase while Take Two even booked a loss despite the huge sales of gta4 and others? Although the guy could just be not very bright.

A larger install base doesn't necessarily mean the game will sell more.  You also have to look at the core audience of that install base.  The Wii has a huge install base, but other than the flag Nintendo franchises, 3rd party exclusives have generally sold poorly on the Wii.