There is a history of games sales that might be instructive to figure out whether SMG is off to a good start, a bad start or a normal start. Here's a table showing how other Mario games have done for first week sales and then "Life to Date" (LTD) sales.
I estimate 350k first week sales, give or take 10%. That would put SMG on track to hit slightly above Sunshine numbers. The curious thing with these sales numbers is that heavily frontloaded numbers have lower overall sales. SMG may be able to break this trend and eventually put up a number like 1.5 - 2 million.
Here's another chart that I used for my preliminary analysis that I'll put out here just in case it might be of use to anyone else. Lot's of interesting things to see and read in between all those numbers.
I also think in this historical context that the Wii neither bombed nor significanly outperformed. It came in pretty much in line with what a reasonable person would expect it to do. If you feel otherwise please feel free to chime in with facts, figures and logic.
Thank to Jayluu (formerly known as John Lucas) and Tabasina for inspiring to complete this little project.
