why do people think 360 will come in third?

[omgwtfbbq]

Don't ask me. I've always been saying that the 360 is going to finish in second. There's no real compelling argument that explains how the PS3 will overtake the 360, They boil down to two things:

1) ZOMG GT5 FFXIII Blu-Ray awesome!!
2) ZOMG Japan!

and while both of these arguments will help the PS3 a little bit, I very much doubt that either of them will be enough to overtake the Xbox's lead any time.