Well here's how I see it. We're moving back to the days of the SNES and GB in Japan times. We got 2 dominant products in the Japanese market being the DS and Wii. Even despite lower sales they are still dominating their market. And this is easy to tell.
But here's the thing. The SNES had a constant sale pace in Japan. The GB had a very slow but constant sale pace. Meaning it allowed the market to grow with them over time. Wii and DS on the other hand have just exploded. DS has done in a 3rd of the time what it took GB to get to 20 million. Wii had been going on PS2 numbers. Point is the market has sustained for 2 years a fast paced growing DS and then both DS and Wii for this last year. And really I don't think the market could keep up that pace realistically.
Basically sorta of like how Point of Diminishing Returns works, but doesn't mean that sales are always going to be down. Point being DS has sold to so many people so quickly in Japan that at some point it had to come down cuase it had an unnatural growth in sales at a point in time. So now it's going to have an unnatural decline in sales over a course of time where for DS's case will probably be leveled up back to normal after holiday season.
Wii on the other hand started off the gate at super speeds but had to come in at a wrong time where the market had been dried from the DS. Meaning it's falling through not only a dried market from the DS but through itself flowing out of the gates. But because it hasn't moved as fast as the DS it'll most likely regenerate after the holiday season.
All other generations in the Japan area has seen either one dominant hardware or 2 dominant hardware saling at reasonable paces. Whether it be SNES and GB or GBA and PS2. Nothing though has been like the Wii and DS combo and I just think it has strained the Japan market for awhile. And this very apparent becuase despite DS and Wii sales being down no other product has really stepped up at all. Wii drops for 2 months, and the PS3 and 360 sales stay exactly the same and only move whne an event happens. That means its obvious that Japan isn't switching to another dominant product.
Although PSP increased it was due to other things and has returned to normal and didn't capitalize on the DS decrease meaning onece again the popular brandname hasn't changed. But its most apparent that this is all true is becuase Wii and DS's decline has seen numerous attempts by the other companies to do pricedrops or new SKU's and Japan and all have been futile. The brandnames haven't died and the dominant products stand.
But it's probably best described as a point of diminishing returns but only in the drop sequence as it'll most likely rise again after holiday season.
