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appolose said:

Picking any one belief about reality is just as baseless as picking another; there is no good reason why one might be true over another.

There is a good reason, because one 'assumption' has better results than the other.

I believe that if I unplug my computer I will not be able to get on the internet.  Another belief I could have is that if I unplug my computer I will be able to get on the internet.

Obviously, the belief that my computer needs to be plugged in is the better belief.  Otherwise, I'm sitting here staring at a blank computer screen.  Now, as you say, my computer may or may not exist, but regardless if it exists or not, the only way I am going to be on it is if I plug it in.