| Dodece said: I knew I would. By the end of 2006 The PS2 had sold 8,751 games world wide. That factors out to 1,071 games annually. Factor in a doubling of development costs over the years, and it is realistic to expect 500 games annually for the Wii console. This is your average market cap for the Wii. Now realize that some markets are larger then others. Now realize that Asia got over three times the games development that the North American market received. Then you reach a number or around 125 games for North America. The PS2 sold an average of 171 games annually in North America. During the coarse of this year the Wii has definitely exceed a hundred titles, and will exceed over two hundred titles including the Virtual console. Looks to me like the Wii is already getting to that ceiling in its first year. The exponential logic would predict that that as the consoles sales double software titles provided will double. So if in the first year the console has sold six million consoles and has seen over two hundred games total for the first year. By the end of year three if consoles sales remain stable. The console must receive six hundred games annually that year. Let me say that again six hundred games for one console in one year in one market. That would be three times the games produced for a console that as of this moment posses a total of one eight the total volume that the PS2 possessed at the end of eight years on the market. Can you see where the logic is heading. Your saying that the Wii is going to support more software titles annually then the PS2 was supporting annually by the end of its eight year, and it will be doing that in under eighteen months. Thats far too much competition for so few customers. I would say that the Wii actually has a annual market cap of around 150 hard copy software titles in North America. That would be the physical limitation your looking at. No your not going to get two hundred titles just, because a new demographic is making up a larger percentage of ownership. Your going to get fewer core titles had the market remained traditional. Seriously the Wii is not going to produce more physically distributed software then the PS2 averaged. The market can expand, but its not going to reach the PS2 volume for quite some time. You need to adopt realistic expectations. |
Just curious what % of the PS2 market do you actually think was actively purchasing games during that timespan of its 8th year? If you think it was all 120m+ your way off. The fact is most people stopped buying PS2 software a long time ago and a direct install for install base comparison is NOT a valid market comparison.
Not to mention I am not sure where you are getting your 3x asia development rate which you are using to justify a rather larger sales division to even get that 125 number. You need to use hard numbers if you are going to do this type of analysis and this 3x number isn't the only place you are lacking hard numbers (see market size).
None of this is even mentioning the assumption being made about the future of Wii software being a huge boom, which isn't really a bad thing. Even if you are right and the market cannot sustain the games its not as if there will be less good games made. The fact is that a saturated market forces companies to disitinguish themselves and quality is one of the best ways to do that.
So in short, I think your analysis is jumping to a lot of conclusions prematurely, and should all of those assumptions turn out correct I still don't think it is going to result in the conclusion you are getting.
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