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mibuokami on 19 September 2009
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atma998 said:
mibuokami said:
atma998 said:
@Gilgamesh

I think you can already put a failed mention beside your 50 PS3 million seller games by the end of 2009 prediction.

10 games thats almost certain to reach 1 million by years end. (assuming GT is gonna be released)

Batman: Arkham Asylum

Madden NFL 10 - This one is a 50/50. It could reach the million mark thanks to the Christmas rush but it will be very close. 

inFamous

Uncharted 2 - I'm not too sure about his one, but the first one (which was released in 2007) is only at 2.56M and was heavily bundled so it will be hard for this sequel to reach the 1 million mark in only 2 months of sales.

Modern Warfare 2

Assassin Creed 2

Gran Tourismo 5

Final Fantasy XIII

Fifa 10

ProEvo Soccer 10

---

Oh-la-la suddenly it gets a little bit more interesting =D

He'll probably be short by around 3-4 but its close enough to cast some doubt :P Especially with new IP (unkown factor) like Dragon Age and games like MK vs DC (very doubtful, it is selling 3k/week and is at 940k. Sould be close but won't reach it by end of 2009 imo) and Tomb Raider (more unlikely since it's at 920k and is selling 3.5k/week) both being around 80k short of a million.

 

 

 

There is currently 35 million seller on the PS3. If I add those 9 titles above, the PS3 will have 44 million seller (assuming GT5 is released this year).

There is no other titles that could make the million by the end of this year. Sorry, but his chances of being right are very low, most likely impossible.

I'm willing to bet that the Uncharted 2 will sell more than a million by the end of the year, this game has almost as much hype as killzone 2 these days and its an established franchise that is not only popular but well known.

Madden is even a safer bet, i'd be gob-smacked if this doesn't reach a million. It has sold 700k in 5 weeks, needs 300k by years end to reach 1 million, that means it has to sell an average of 20k for another 15 weeks to achieve this target. (1 million in 20 weeks)

Madden 09 sold just shy of 1.4 million in 20 weeks, the first 5 weeks of sale saw just shy of 700,000 (same as 10!), baring in mind that the PS3 price cut probably inflated the past couple of weeks' figure a bit I still can't see how it cannot reach 1 million by year end.

It would have to suffer a 400,000 sales drop from the 09 iteration for that to happen, Madden 10 launch week sale was around 85% of Madden 09 (430k vs 370k), If you take 85% of 1.4 million (with a 5% margin of error) we're still going to be looking at 1120000 - 1260000, more than a 100k clear of the target even if Madden 10 sells just 80% of Madden 09. Its very very unlikely to happen and certainly no bookie will be giving this a 50/50 bet, more like 100 to 1 odds.

I personally don't think either MK or TR will make a million too, but you must take the Holiday increase into account when you discount these games. Both will reach around 40k more by year end if it sells at its current rate, if the Holiday can see a 20k-40k push both will be over. But yea, I agree its not likely, but certainly not impossible.

I defend my list to the fullest good sir, I am confident all 10 will reach million by year end =)

The rest... well those five remaining 1 million I call upon chance and providence.