| Lord N said: It moved three million units during the 4th quarter of 2006, which would include October. As for the games you listed, Halo has already done most of the damage that it's going to do, and the rest are either multi-platform, unproven IPs, or target the core gamer and the hardcore gamer. So far in 2007, the 360 has sold roughly 7.6m consoles. Add in 3m (which will almost surely be higher) and you come in at roughly 10.5-11m sold in 2007. You said that at best, the 360 would be at 23m sold on January 1st, 2008. So, after it has seen at least one more price cut, you expect the console to move about 30% less units than it did in 2007... This is false. The 360 had about 7.75 million sold at the beginning of the year. That means it has sold exactly 5 million so far in 2007, not 7.76 million. It may sell 7.76 million to 8.5 million by January 1st, but it doesn't have that now. If the 360 had 7.76 million sold so far this year, that would put it at 5 million at the beginning of the year. Even if we use your number of 3 million for November and December, that would mean it sold 2 million in the entire world from Nov. 2005 - Oct. 2006, and I don't think I need to explain why that's retarded. As for next year, let's take a look at that, shall we? Microsoft will not drop the price on the 360 before GTAIV comes out, and it will probably only be by 50 bucks, which means that it will still be above mass market price point. It does not have any exclusive titles next year that have mass appeal as far as the general gaming public is concerned, nor does it have any sequels to proven system-selling franchises. I know that its sales have been spectacular in N. America the past few weeks, but it is still selling dead last in Europe and Japan. The 360 had a price cut this year and one of the most hyped games in history and it will still have sold <9 million units in 2007 even if it were to reach 16 million by year's end. That would also mean that it would have to sell 13 million units next year to get to 29 million. So how do you figure that it's going to sell in upwards of 30% more than it will have this year despite the fact that it will still be above mass market price point, will have no games with mass appeal to the general gaming public, sells well in only one region, has no exclusive titles that are proven franchises or are as big as Halo 3, and that there will be cheaper, more appealing alternatives? |
Rol already caught my error and I retracted the 10m statement. That still doesn't change that the 360 sold ~2.8m Nov-Dec 2006 and your prediction means it won't even cover that number. Simply put, it doesn't make sense. The 360 is outpacing its sales last year yet inexplicably, you think that it will suddenly grind to a halt starting this week. Halo will continue moving units to people who couldn't afford the console in September, there is absolutely no reason to think that it won't. Sales are still much higher than most people ever thought they would be.
Why do you think MS will only drop the price by $50 around GTA IV time? Sony has sliced $200 off their console in an attempt to remain competitive, yet you believe that a company with infinitely deeper pockets than Sony with a hardware cost/sell advantage will somehow let themselves be steamrolled just when they're making headway into the market. Again, it doesn't make sense.
I fully expect to see the 360 start hitting mass price points sometime Q2 next year ($300 or slightly less for Pro) with a possibility of a $250 Pro by Christmas next year. If Sony is still sitting at $400 for the stripped-down version of the PS3 all of next year (a possibility given their loss per unit), there is no way that the 360 will suddenly be eclipsed by Sony's console.
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