I don't think, at this price level, it will easily fall under 100k next year, but one year always over 200k is more difficult, maybe if in future Sony cuts price under $200 when it's still selling well enough to not needing a cut in a hurry, it will be able, adding remaining momentum to cut effect, to have a long period without falling under 200k/week, but $300, or even $250 are still prices that, we are seeing it right now, don't warrant this.
Not falling more than two weeks in a row under 200k/week from now until 26 Dec is a prediction much easier to come true, but I wouldn't be 100% sure.