Future Markets, PS3 wins, 360 wins, Wii wins...

[johnlucas]

z64dan said:

iandrade said:

To foresee the market is pure loses of time. We have that to take in consideration… strategy of the companies, acceptance of the market, “N” factors that lead to a console if to become number ONE. For me, it is person job who does not have what to make… In other words, inutil job.

You are right. It is VERY difficult to predict the future. We can only guess what will happen based on what HAS happened in the past. Because usually there are factors that nobody takes into account. Only the future will tell.

Not that hard. See if my Nostradamusings come true.

End of 2007 worldwide sales (sell-through only)

XBox 360 = within 13 Million range (may near 14 million but will not cross the threshhold)

PS3 = within 7 Million range (being optimistic here)

Wii = AT LEAST 20 Million (*gasp* did he say that?)

End of 2007 Marketshare percentages (console only)

XBox 360 = approx. 32.5% (depending on placement within 13 Mil range)

PS3 = approx. 17.5% (depending on placement within/without 7 mil range)

Wii = approx. 50% (depending on how far past 20 Mill mark they go)

*Wii will catch and surpass the XBox 360 in worldwide sell-throughs within the month of July 2007

*Wii will catch the XBox 360 in the whole Americas region (not solely USA) sell-throughs ALSO within the month of July 2007

*Metal Gear Solid 4 will NOT go to the PlayStation 3 to the shock of the gaming world

*PS3 will not see life beyond the year 2009

*Wii will go on to surpass the sales of the PS2 to become the greatest selling console of all time

*DS will go on to surpass the sales of the GameBoys to become the greatest selling handheld of all time

*XBox 360 will never get a decent foothold in Japan (Duh!)

*Gameplayers will always fall into the trap of worshipping the power and specs of a gamemachine rather than the engagement of the player through a fun experience (Duh!)

*Microsoft's and Sony's debts incurred as a result of this 7th generation fight will give them second thoughts about continuing in the videogame field

*One of Nintendo's competitors will drop out of the gaming business at the end of this generation to the shock of the gaming world

Just a few that came off the top of my head. Let's see how right I am.

John Lucas