Analyst's Already Predicting ANOTHER PS3 Pricecut! And PS2 to $99

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radioioRobert said:
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...PS3 in the spring, when blockbuster games Grand Theft Auto IV and PS3 exclusives Metal Gear Solid 4, Little Big Planet and Gran Turismo 5 will launch...

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Q1 '08 is what matters to Sony. They can't just ignore the quarter, and push all their PS3 sales to the following qrt.

1/ MGS4 now confirmed to be a Q2 release.

2/ We have no real idea when GTA4 will release. I'm guessing it won't be Q1 '08, and might be as late as Xmas. Either way, MS is going to plan a 360 price crop / new model hits for the release of GTA4. I still think the 360 version will get 65-70% of GTA sales (esp. with exclusive episodes hitting), and that although it will help the PS3 - it won't help that much.

3/ Prologue will probably launch Q1 '08. Yet to see how much of a sales impact it will have (hardware-wise). The full version of GT5 might be a Xmas '08, or even a '09 release.

4/ ...which leaves LBP (& HOME... & Killzone??). LBP will be a real litmus test for the PS3 - as its a "very" casual game, launching for a console with a very "non" casual price.

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People love to just bandy all these titles/names together, without properly considering each of them. Its not like all of them are launching in the same quarter - or even close.

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I really do think time is running out for Sony. Next week (PS3 price cut in the US), and the following two weeks are CRITICAL.

Remember they have forecast to sell/ship 9 MILLION units in the next 5 months. To have any chance, they will need to sell at LEAST 5m (and probably close to 5.5m) PS3 units this holiday season.

There are EIGHT weeks left this year. 5m/8 = 620k / week.

Last week they sold 135k. Sales in Europe have already dropped 30k (post price-cut) from the week before.

Sales in Japan have barely budged - after big releases (LAIR, EoJ) and the price cuts. Within 2 weeks the remaining big titles for the year will be out (R&C, Musou).

If they are even slightly serious about making their forecast - sales must start budging now. Even within two weeks it will be too late.