MGS4 delayed til Q2 08

[shams]

This is pretty significant!

Firstly - cue John Lucas. Everyone remember his initial "crazy" theory about MGS never hitting the PS3? I'm not saying its going to happen - but its been delayed twice now. I wouldn't be surprised to see another delay.

Secondly - apart from more time to polish the game, any delay means there should be MORE PS3's available (larger install base) by the time it hits. Konami are not taking it on their own shoulders to be the ones responsible for the increase of the install base.

...

Now - the important issue. Sony has forecast an ambitious PS3 target for this fiscal year. The only way they can get close, is for some killer titles to hit Q1 '08.

Nothing they had "lined up" for the quarter is bigger than MGS4. It probably could have sold 1m PS3s worldwide.

Now that Konami has shifted the title to the NEXT FY (starting April '08) - this will have no impact on PS3 sales for this FY.

Surely this places even more pressure on Sony. If Sony misses their forecast by a significant margin (say 7m PS3s instead of 11m), this will make them look *real* bad - and will seriously scare companies putting a lot of focus on PS3 software (including Konami).

If it happens - I'd almost guarantee a delay until Xmas '08 - and the PS3 version gets released along side a 360 version (worldwide). If you can get the install base you want for your game - go multiplatform, and release it on another console at the same time.

I'd say there is a 20% of this happening at the moment. It will also be interesting to see if Sony respond to this, and attempt to downgrade their PS3 fiscal forecast. We'll know for sure by the end of the year (end of this qrt).