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Forza 3 has a 50-50 chance of beating Gran Turismo 5 in average review scores on metacritic/gamerankings - which IMO do not mean anything. The metacritic sites accept reviews from a lot of dodgy sources which are counted in the average scores.

Average review scores of Forza 3 between 87 - 92%. Average review scores of Gran Turismo 5 between 87 - 92%. The averare reviews scores of both games could be more or less the same. Big exclusive games tend to receive favourable/biased reviews to assist sales and marketing of the games.

Forza 3 has no chance of beating Gran Turismo 5 in game sales which count a lot more than game review scores.

Forza 3 could sell 3 to 4 million copies if bundled heavily. But will not sell half the total of Gran turismo 5 which is undoubtedly the most anticipated upcoming game to be released on the PS3. Gran turismo 5 could sell over 10 million copies ltd and become the PS3s biggest selling game. Gran turismon 5 may even surpass Halo 3 in life time sales.