When will we see the next Ps3 price cut

[numonex]

$50 PS3 price cut in 12 months time or a $100 PS3 price cut in 2 years time?
We will either see a $249 PS3 2010 Xmas price point or a $199 PS3 2011 Xmas price point.

If I was betting on it I would say it would be more likely a $199 price for PS3 in 2 years time.