$198 HD-DVD Player Spotted at Wal-Mart

[Bodhesatva]

Ugh, every time I read news like this -- whether it be good news for HD DVD or Blu Ray -- I think to myself: "god, what an awful, bloody, expensive mess this format war is."

I don't see either format becoming dominant any time soon, now. The HD DVD stand alone players will clearly outstrip the Blu Ray ones, I think; at the same time, the PS3 is such a dominating for in the HD video market that it's hard to imagine Blu Ray ever really losing.

At my Toys R Us store, you'd better bet I emphasize the Blu Ray capabilities of the PS3 to potential buyers, and I use it as an important and distinguishing feature from the 360.  Even knowing that a large portion of buyers don't know or care about the Blu Ray capability, the fact that even a fraction of that 5+ million DO care puts Blu Ray players on top by a sizable margin. Heck, even 5 percent of users would be enough to give Blu Ray a noticable lead. 

If I had to guess, at this point, I think both HD DVD and Blu Ray will accrue enough market share within 2 years time that neither can really eliminate the other -- the big problem is movie libraries. If I buy an HD DVD Player for 200 now, the big problem later on isn't buying a 100-150 dollar Blu Ray player in 3 years; it's replacing all the HD DVD movies I already have in my library, or vice versa. That just isn't happening unless one of gains an overwhelming advantage. Thus, I'm now betting on dual-players being the ultimate winner, and both HD DVD and Blu Ray being viable mediums for a long time. That would be a first -- I'm sure neither Sony nor Toshiba considers that their best case scenario -- but I don't think we've ever had two formats compete so viciously before.