| Words Of Wisdom said: We don't know your identity for certain. We only know the identities of the dead and the ones the cop has investigated. You know this. Roleclaiming townsfolk doesn't prove anything. However, lynching Soleron gives us the best chance to get a Mafia and find out if Craan's results are useful. We can find out that Craan is accurate and get rid of a mafia member with one move (67% chance of getting one between Soleron and Craan). That's win/win to me. Yet... you're doing everything you can to discredit him and insult me. |
Those chances are not as good when you consider the possibility that Craan is insane, which is 50% - in which case he could either be reading Soleron backwards or be reading everyone as Mafia, in which case Soleron may not be Mafia regardless. The chances are lower than fifty percent assuming that all possibilities have equal likelihoods (they don't).
And yes, I suppose that the only way to prove my role would be to see what the arsonist does, and whether or not he succeeds in his aim tonight.
But the arsonist can be an interesting ally of the town when the town is close to losing - since he loses with town, and all. Whoever he is, I'm just goign to have to hope he's gunning for Mafia tonight.
