Dangit, it didn't post what I had....
At any rate, Microsoft stands to make a large bit more this year in software vs. last year for the same quarter (last year, MS lost around $150m, but I would say most of that was due to the Zune launch).
A few numbers:
Last year, Microsoft had litterally no first party titles to sell, aside from Viva Pinata, and older Platinum titles, of which, Forza 2 is currently besting every title combined (and that doesn't include the profits MS is getting from PGR4 and the 2nd week onward of Halo 3).
Microsoft makes about $7 per software unit sold - that's less than Sony or Nintendo charge, at $10 each.
Having said that, with just 3 weeks in the books for October, this year has been oh-so much better than last year: first party sales are much, much higher (about 1.3m units in the US vs. 50,000)
Not only this, the overall software sales are incredibly higher: last year, the Xbox 360 only managed 1.3m units of software for the first 3 weeks. So far, Halo and PGR alone have managed the entire software sales in just 2 titles. The rest of the 3rd party sales have been a bit higher too (1.7m units in third party sales thus far, with only 1 major launch).
The Zune was a decent-sized drain, but now I would assume that it's probably treading water, and only draining a bit via marketing for the holidays.
Now, having said all this, I believe this year, with everything that's next, software-wise, is oh-so much better.
Last year, we had Madden 07, Marvel: UA, Gears, RSV, CoD3, Splinter Cell, Blue Dragon, and Viva Pinata for the major software-movers.
This year, we have Madden 08, Guitar Hero 3, Orange Box, Mass Effect, CoD4, Army of Two, Assassain's Creed, Ace Combat 6, Virtua Fighter 5, and Lost Odyssey. Not to mention vastly higher-selling titles (the first week of August featured only 300k s/w sales in holdovers last year, this year it was double that).
I would expect software sales on the X360 to be up by about 100% worldwide vs. last year. But more importantly: hardware and first party software should be up. Halo 3 still has alot of selling to do this Christmas. First Party sales should be up around 10x over last year (First Party sales might of accounted for 500,000 units last year. This year, expect 5m from LO, H3, VP:A, PGR4, and the leftovers) - and that's just US/JPY.
IMO, like last year, the attach rates are going to suffer, like they always do. Attach rates are never as blisteringly high as they are during the non-Holiday months. Last year, MS saw around a 5.0 attach rate over Christmas vs. a decently higher everytime else. But mind you, I'm talking a 5.0 over Nov-Dec for new buyers....That doesn't include old ones.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
