Who will make a new console first?

[Alby_da_Wolf]

Releasing first doesn't mean very much, it didn't save XB 360 from Wii and from its own faults, PS3 too wasn't able to fill the gap for its own faults more than for the gap itself, actually most people and even MS expected it to narrow the gap faster. Enthusiast early adopters are always the vast majority of buyers during the first months, whenever the release happens (big, big error for Sony having shortages at launch). Releasing first gives an initial advantage, but at leas two big drawbacks: higher costs and in the HD "muscle" competition, the opportunity for competitors to release slightly more powerful products at slightly lower price, if willing to do it (again another thing Sony wasn't able to exploit for excessively ambitious project, Nintendo OTOH didn't because it had a radically different plan, completely ignore HD and whichever muscles aren't players' own ).
The only reason for Nintendo to release a "Wii 1.5 HD" would be if Full HD TV sets are adopted by the vast majority of families before the previously expected end of this gen, but a smooth enough upscaling with AA, to avoid noticeable jagging on bigger HD screens, could be enough, given the scarce attention to games resolution demonstrated by Wii gamers up until now.