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tombi123 said:
Remember Uncharted released when the PS3's install base was about 7.5M.
This doesn't matter, people continued to pick up Uncharted all the way up to its userbase of 23+ million today.

I am going to say Uncharted 2. Reasons:

1/ It looks better than the first and has online multiplayer.
Uncharted was already a quality game anyway, being a little bit better isn't going to get someone to buy U2 that wouldn't have bought U1 ...
2/ much more hyped than the first.
Hype does not translate into sales. Mass marketing does, hype doesn't ...
3/ Left4Dead only released last year.
.. so?
4/ I feel the hype is lower for L4D2 than the original.
Per orders are already ahead of what L4D's were
5/ L4D will have stiff competition from Halo and (Infinity Ward) CoD.
Like last year when it was up against COD (which still did 5 mill+ on 360 alone, and Gears 2)

Lifetime:

Uncharted 2 - 3.5M
Left 4 Dead 2 - 2M