GPUs Set to Increase Performance by 570 Times by 2015

[NJ5]

Soleron said:

NJ5 said:

...

What about power consumption and size? Certainly each core won't use 50 times less power in 6 years (especially if you keep increasing its performance by 1.5 each year), if you put 50 cores there you've got a big, hot, power sucking beast. Is that realistic?

I don't think so.

 

It's not reasonable that each shader will increase in performance by 1.5x. The most I've ever seen for a GPU is 10-15%. Most of the performance increase is due to the die shrink. What do you mean by "cores"? GPUs don't have cores, and shaders are only a small part (30-40%) of the die area. If you mean X2 chips, well the scaling is poor and is less than 2 and a half times for 4 chips, what do you think 50 would be?

NJ5, you are correct. Most power reduction is from die shrinks, and you're lucky if you get much more than 30% reduction from a shrink. The 65nm 9800GTX used 20% less power than the 8800Ultra while being similar in design. 6 years means 3 die shrinks, so using 1/5 of the power is optimistic. 1/50 is ridiculous, especially if you also want to increase performance.

 

 

 

The usage of the word cores is a bit weird, so I assumed he meant multiplying the number of shader units by 50.