Soleron on 28 August 2009
570x in 6 years = 2.9x performance per year
Let's look at Nvidia's recent history.
G80, Nov 2006 = 1x performance (8800GTX)
G92, March 2008 = 1.6x performance (9800GX2)
GT200, June 2008 = 1.4x performance (GTX280)
GT200b, January 2009 = 2.4x performance (GTX295)
So, in order to make up the scaling deficit against that so far, GT300 expected in December would need 24.4x the performance of the 8800GTX. So it would have to be about 10x faster than the GTX295, and transistor scaling (55nm -> 40nm) will give a max of 2x of that. So Nvidia, transistor for transistor, has to improve performance by 5x with their next architecture.
I'm sorry, it's not happening. No computer architecture, CPU or GPU, in history has ever done that.
