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I never pre-order anything.

As for your question: With Halo, MW and L4D you'll already have plenty of action, so I'd pick an RPG as next game and I'd wait for reviews to decide which one toy buy first (you'll get both RPGs and ACII in the long run anyway, won't you?). According to previews both RPGs will be great. All trailers of DA imply that the story is heavily inspired by LotR (a bit too much for me, but anyway) and Risen will be the better Gothic 3. If you're still undecided after reviews: I think Dragon Age has the far better boxart...