Xbox 360.... 3.2 million consoles in 4Q 2006. Can it do it this year, too?

[Dodece]

Microsoft has four key factors in their favor for the upcoming quarter. They have the better lineup they did not get the perfect storm they were anticipating having lost Grand Theft Auto for this year. However that was offset by the loss of Smash for Nintendo, and the insane amount of delays on the PS3. So the situation hasn't changed in comparison to Nintendo while Sony has lost a lot of ground. However Grand Theft Auto MIA for this holiday season did some damage to both high end consoles.

Price Microsoft has made some serious headway on this front. While we have focused so much attention on the price cutting Sony has done. I think Microsoft has made it to the edge of the mass market. Their low end model is just thirty dollars more then the Wii in North America, and its actually on even footing in other regions. Further more Microsoft has managed to get some bundles out to consumers. That helps to make the price a little less imposing. Anyway price cuts have been effective this year for Microsoft, and to a lesser extent Sony. However a cheaper machine should sell better year over year.

Library cannot be ignored the more you have the better. Old titles do sell consoles to an extent. The more you like on a platform the more appealing it will be. Microsoft has added quite a few decent titles this year some of them being block busters. The likes of Halo, Bioshock, and others will still be fresh enough to sell the console to consumers. The head start has some benefits, and this would be one of them.

The fourth factor is positive buzz. That is obviously the hardest to gauge however titles like Halo 3 bring with them a lot of avarice. The buzz is selling systems now, and will continue to sell systems in the near future. Image does matter then more attractive something is generally the better it sells. Further more the media coverage actually detracts from the PS3, while raining down positive stories about the 360. For almost a year now non stop negative PS3 press has to have taken a toll. Meanwhile the 360 has received a lot of positive press as of late.

There is nothing necessarily detracting from the 360 in the upcoming quarter, and they came through the year better then the other high end rival. Basically Microsoft is in a far stronger position this year rather then last year. They do not have to contend with launches steeling steam from their console. They also have done a lot to make it more appealing. So why shouldn't it sell much better.

I would say five million in the upcoming quarter is plausible. Thats just under two million for all the combined improvements. With the added advantage of their position over the PS3. Perhaps not the Wii, but another poster said it the market seems to be diversifying. Anyway my thoughts.