Looks like more of your wanted games are from the PS3 library. With the added bluray capability PS3 would be a better option
IF yo play a LOT of multiplayer only games (and I am using Call of duty as an example since about 8 out of 12 friends who have this game have never even played the single player) and want to play with them the 360 arcade would be a good idea. I would wait a while before I buy the arcade since I am guessing that microsoft would make it more enticing (another price drop, games pack-in or hard drive) since they are shaving off 100$ from the other SKU.
Media capabilities wise PS3 is better, netflix integrtaion is good on XBOX360 but you have to have gold membership (which you will need anyway for multiplayer) but you can achieve the same effect with PS3 using playon or some other DLNA software.
DLNA software IMHO is actually a whole lot better since then u can see gametrailers, animeshipuddin, hulu etc in addition to netflix so $39 would be actually be a steal compared to $50 ($40/$30 if get it on sale) for gold every year for multiplayer and just netflix.
