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I think 12 months is far too soon.

The Wii is losing momentum, but not to the extent that the people at GT believe.

Also, with the unpredictable nature of the market right now (partially evidenced by the unbelieveable success story of the Wii), all it takes from Nintendo is another solid "casual" IP and BOOM they're back. Wii Music may not have been that flash, but no doubt they've got another "Wii" titled game in the think tank (not just Wii Fit Plus).

They'll probably suffer (I don't think they'll lose) this holiday season, but in terms of core games, they've got a pretty bright future and all it takes is 1 casual title to bring in those who have not latched onto the Wii craze yet.