For one, live-silver does not have online gaming, just content and downloads. So it is more like Wii's current setup where it has moves and demos, Wii has Opera. Two the Gold membership is not $50 per year, it is only $35.
Now, as for the real question. I don't see how MS could keep it for a cost. Either it will become free or they will give free downloads per month to people who pay the membership fee and Silver will then include online play. However, the other question is how can sony afford to give all of that away. It isn't cheap to host tons of servers worldwide for the millions of users who will play online. Let alone home 'game' which is sort of similar to a mmorpg. These type of games for the same reasons always charge a montly fee. Which is much more than live gold service btw. I think this is another mistake for sony, personally, or that they will not give you Home for free just online play as you have now. Home may be changed to have a low yearly cost and the MS would just match that. After all it wouldn't be the first time Sony has changed there public pricing or reversed ealier promises.
