Next gen winner will be Sony...they will have learnt a valuable lesson this gen...Microsoft will come close to winning but will be held back because of the japanese sales, they have to succeed in order to complete the tri factor and win any generation.
Nintendo will be last, they will have such a hard time trying to sell their new machines to the casuals, as is already proof the casuals don't care about graphics, so a Wii HD will not convince the casuals to upgrade.
The only way Nintendo could have a chance of winning to is to create a new gimmick which catches the casuals attention, but in the process will need to drop motion controls so that developers are forced to code for the new gimmick....unless this new gimmick some how incorporates the wiimotes...perhaps something like wiimotes+camers, ala Sony camer+wand solution.....the question is, will Nintendo suck it up and borrow this in order to be successful, or will arrogant pride get in there way as they accept another loss, but continue the mantra that they are the innovators and not the followers.
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