Probably won't see a price cut on the Arcade unless MS keeps the price of the 120GB HDD at $149.
$149 Arcade + $149 120GB HDD = $299 Elite (base console + HDD - HD cables according to the new boxes).
Otherwise it's a $199 Arcade + $99 120GB HDD = $299 Elite.
If that new box is correct, the new Elite won't include "HD cables" either, which will be one way to shave a few dollars off of production costs in addition to picking up some sales of pricey official Xbox 360 HD cables as well for those who don't opt to just buy a $5 HDMI cable from Amazon, Monoprice or wherever.
As for the hopeful chatter about an Arcade with an HDD in the near future; won't happen. A "free" 60GB HDD would currently cost about the same ($5 more at most) as a 120GB HDD. The additional cost associated with a higher priced SKU would be to include ANY hard drive, not just a larger one at lower range capacities (and yes, 120GB is a lower cap drive by current standards).
Lower capacity hard drives don't cost less past a certain point (barring dumped inventory). Past that point, they become special order OEM items that can actually end up costing more.
That being said, I see no reason why MS wouldn't start offering larger HDDs than 120GB at the same current $149 price or even $99, considering their current strategy to increase dependence on HDD storage (full game downloads, emphasis on more DD content, video, etc.). It only encourages/allows consumers to buy more download content after all.
A 250GB OEM HDD would practically cost the same as a 120GB OEM HDD. Larger sizes (320GB and 500GB) don't command a huge premium over those prices either.







