| daveJ said: Never, Its practically impossible now. The question should of been when or if do you think the wii (not including its successor the wii2,wiiHD) will hit 40% marketshare, which is a lot tougher to predict. But Ild go with december 2010 |
40 % is not at all as easy to count with as 50%. But let's take a look at this troll post for the fun of it.
December 2010 is 16 months away, approx 70 weeks.
If the Wii stops selling today, the PS360 would have to sell 24 million in that time, that is 340 000 per week. Last year PS360 combined sold 21 million, so 24 million with two holiday seasons is definitely a safe assumption.
However, if the Wii sells only 100k per week (to take a very low estimate), that would mean the PS360 would have to sell 34 million (or 490k per week). This is starting to be improbable.
So far this year, the Wii has sold on average 200k per week (without holiday bump). That means PS360 would have to sell 44 million (or 620k per week). That's more than they sold in the previous two full years together, and is really improbable.
Last year, the Wii sold on average 470k per week. If the Wii would sell like last year, that would mean the PS360 would have to sell a staggering 72 million in 70 weeks to reach a combined 60% marketshare. Yes, that's over 1 million units on a weekly average.
In short... I don't think so.
Wow, that was fun!
| If Wii sells | PS360 combined must sell | PS360 combined must sell Weekly | PS360 must increase weekly sales by |
| 0k | 24 million | 340k | -15% |
| 100k | 34 million | 490k | +22,5% |
| 200k | 44 million | 620k | +55% |
| 470k | 72 million | 1,020k | +255% |
Woot! I even managed to make a table!
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