All this obsession with predicting one or two short term data points makes no sense. There are all kinds of fluctuations which can affect GDP and unemployment one or two quarters forward. The best example is of course inventory slumps after a period of low production, which can immediately cause a boost in production to a much bigger level... of course, that level of growth is a one time thing, not to be continued in the next quarter.
What really matters are the fundamentals behind the economy. In the case of the US, economic growth has been driven by the expansion of credit. This crazy expansion of credit is not ongoing any longer (except by the government), consumers are (slowly) paying down their debt or defaulting on it. How this leads to anything but an economic slump, I really can't see.
Some food for thought:
http://finance.yahoo.com/retirement/article/107500/debt-burden-to-weigh-on-stocks;_ylt=AiDI1r5WyB0BvOBxh7f9kjm7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1cnZvbWhhBHBvcwM2BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNkZWJ0YnVyZGVudG8-?mod=retire-401k&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=
My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957
