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August 18th is the most likely date.

Add to the evidence the current increase in parts orders for PS3 components from vendors at a time when current stock is thinning out, sales are being offered, the primary 80GB SKU in Japan has been removed from order listings, etc.

I'm not sure why so many people appear to not want to see a cheaper, smaller PS3 other than for something insignificant like it will throw off their sales predictions.