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crumas2 on 05 August 2009
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SlorgNet said:

The price-cut/Slim is coming, there's no doubt about that. Price cuts for mass market items have exponential effects on sales -- we're talking a near doubling of PS3 sales. This is the first holiday season where the PS3 library is outshining the 360 -- Microsoft's lack of first-party studios will come back to bite them very, very hard. It's not the MS is going out of business, but they'll remain a follower in the industry, not a leader.

I didn't imply the PS3 slim/pricecut would not be arriving in my post... I questioned the assertion that if it did, the potential 45% increase in sales would spell game-over for the 360.  You're using a mish-mash of assertions... that the Slim/pricecut would increase sales by 100% (double), and that it would have an exponential effect on sales (sales to the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. power).  Yes, double the price is the same as saying exponential, as long as it's only an exponent of 2... saying sales increases would be exponential is misleading since that's the very lowest end of the exponent range (unless you're talking about to the 1st power, which wouldn't have any effect).

Let's redo the math assuming you're correct (double the sales):

1. PS3 total sales for September through December 2008: 4.3m

2. 4.3m x 2 = 8.6m

3. 360 total sales for September through December 2008: 6.5m

 

Here are the re-done scenarios:

1. 360 sales for Sep-Dec 2009 = Sep-Dec 2008: the PS3 outsells the 360 by 2.1m units and reduces the gap from 8.5m to 6.4m units total.

2. 360 sales for Sep-Dec 2009 = 80% Sep-Dec 2008: the PS3 outsells the 360 by 3.3m units and reduces the gap from 8.5m to 5.2m units total.

3. 360 sales for Sep-Dec 2009 = 1/2 Sep-Dec 2008: the PS3 outsells the 360 by 5.4m units and reduces the gap from 8.5m to 3.1m units total.

4. 360 sales for Sep-Dec 2009 = 1/4 Sep-Dec 2008: the PS3 outsells the 360 by 6.9m units and reduces the gap from 8.5m to 1.6m units total.

Scenario 3 and 4 are unlikely... so I still can't see how doubling PS3 sales through the end of the year or even longer is going to be a game ending scenario for MS unless MS just sits still from here on out.