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SlorgNet on 05 August 2009
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crumas2 said:
Slimebeast said:

Face it, MS can't counter a $299 PS3 this Holiday season.

A $50 X360 price drop would be nowhere near enough to lift the sales up to PS3 Slim levels. A $299 Slim would lift the PS3 sales by 45% on average for the rest of 2009 (a lot higher in the first couple of weeks of course).

The only hope is that Sony can't afford to sell the Slim for $299 this year, or even $349, or else it's game over for Xbox in this generation.

You can quote me on this.

That's quite a claim.  Usually I agree with your predictions, but this one seems very unlikely.

Let's do a little math...

Assuming that Sony actually managed to pull off a $299 slim model for Christmas season 2009, and assuming that would lift the PS3 sales by 45% for the season, and assuming they actually managed to have the units on the shelf by Sep 1:

 

The price-cut/Slim is coming, there's no doubt about that. Price cuts for mass market items have exponential effects on sales -- we're talking a near doubling of PS3 sales. This is the first holiday season where the PS3 library is outshining the 360 -- Microsoft's lack of first-party studios will come back to bite them very, very hard. It's not the MS is going out of business, but they'll remain a follower in the industry, not a leader.